Suddenly, President Joe Biden isn’t oddmakers’ pic to retain the presidency in 2024.
Per Oddschecker’s Kyle Newman, European oddsmakers have made former president Donald Trump the favorite, as of October 7, 2021.
“While this may be shocking in America, it makes perfect sense in Europe,” stated Newman.
“There have been a few 2024 favorites since the market opened. It started with Kamala Harris, then went to Joe Biden, then Harris again. Throughout the process, though, Donald Trump has remained a distant third until now.”
“Donald Trump is the massive betting favorite. Over the last 30 days, 54.2% of bets have been placed on Trump to win the election. Joe Biden is second with 10.2% of bets. Then Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis both have 5.6% of bets.”
Since the previous odds check, Trump has moved from +650 to +350 while Biden has actually improved from +400 to +375. Hence, Biden’s chances of winning went up slightly but he lost his status as the favorite.
2024 Presidential Race Odds
Oct 7, 2021
Money: A successful $100 wager on Trump would payout $450 (net $350) while the same winning bet on Biden would garner $475 (net $375).
It’s quite obvious Biden’s significant approval ratings drop, which started in late July, has impacted bettors. Nevertheless, bookies still have him and Trump virtually tied.
While the former president certainly has a large following, some Republican lawmakers would consider him a liability in 2024 due to his inability to accept defeat in 2020 and peacefully transition power, his perceived role in the January 6 Insurrection at the Capitol, and his questionable handling of the pandemic.
Moreover, he’s 0-2 in winning the popular vote and his approval ratings never reached 50 percent in any survey conducted by a respectable pollster during his four years in office.
BUT, Trump’s base is unwavering in its support for him and will enthusiastically go to the polls in high numbers.
Should Biden’s approval ratings be in the gutter at election time, he could suffer the same fate as Hillary Clinton in 2016 where a high percentage of anti-Trumpers aren’t inspired to vote and, consequentially, don’t participate in the voting process or select a third-party candidate in protest of the Democratic nominee.
In 2016, third-party candidates received a whopping 5 percent of the vote versus just 1.8 percent four years later.
We will monitor these odds closely from month to month.
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